By providing Ukraine with war-winning military support, the west can send a message to the Kremlin – and any other irredentist powers – that using nuclear threats will not work.įocusing on Russia’s nuclear arsenal alone distracts from more immediate threats, namely the alleged positioning of explosives around ZNPP, which has been under occupation by Russian armed forces since March 2022. Any serious assessment of nuclear risk means not underestimating this.īut it is also crucial that western leaders consider the consequences of being cowed by Putin’s threats, which are designed to force the world to indulge his rapacious appetite to destroy Ukraine. Even use of a tactical nuclear weapon, resulting in a smaller explosion, would be a catastrophe for Ukraine.
A nuclear war would herald the end of global civilisation. Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, a dubious achievement it is not shy of broadcasting.
More recently, the international community’s muted reaction to the Kakhovka dam catastrophe will have hardly caused him to reconsider his strategy.īut in the absence of a clear, coordinated plan to deal with Russia’s escalating nuclear threats, western leaders have edged us closer to the nuclear disaster they are seeking to avoid. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the US and EU response was underwhelming – limited to symbolic but often ineffective personal sanctions. In his defence, he can cite some compelling evidence to support his belief. Since the invasion 17 months ago, Putin appears to have remained convinced that he has the “strategic patience” to outlast the west and assure his victory.
The west’s mixed signals over its willingness to defend Ukraine are widely considered to have contributed to Putin’s decision to launch his genocidal war. The instinct by some of Ukraine’s allies to reduce the risk of Russia turning to its nuclear arsenal is entirely correct, but the tactics are misguided. While unconvincing, the rhetoric was an eerie and foreboding reminder of past Kremlin disinformation campaigns following Russian atrocities: the Skripal poisonings, the Bucha massacre, the downing of passenger jet MH17, and the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
0 kommentar(er)
